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awbvious's avatar

Will probably comment on this soon, but if I can go off topic... I just saw

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Carreyrou narrowed a pool of 620 early cryptographic mailing list users down to a single suspect using a range of writing tics, including hyphenation errors and spelling variations, he wrote in the report.

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https://www.theblock.co/post/396663/nyt-investigation-suggests-adam-back-may-be-satoshi-nakamoto

The writing ticks are exactly what I was thinking when I wrote this comment:

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The big question is, do either of the users use asterisk-space-word-space-asterisk for emphasis solely, or do both, and to what degrees.

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https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/why-len-sassaman-was-not-satoshi/comment/71989136

I mean does not one remember how they caught the Unibomber? We might not have Satoshi's relative to rat on him (after all Satoshi isn't blowing up people) but we get pattern matching technology that is, uh, kind of everywhere now.

awbvious's avatar

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Above all other causes, WeWork collapsed when a years-long narrative sold to venture investors collided with real revenue numbers that had to be disclosed in an S-1.

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I'm beginning to think AI projects are like crypto projects--and not in a good way. Not the on-chain stuff. Not the actual crypto. That's never the problem. It's the stuff that they do not have on chain like off-chain computation and servers, or the stuff that runs the chain like a handful of dudes, or the humans that supposedly may or may not do stuff based on what happens on chain, or the code audits that aren't up-to-date with the latest push to production, or the "decentralized" app that only needs 2 out of 3 signatures to do something and oops 2 of them got social engineered by North Korea, or APRs out of their butts because they are using the next investor to pay the first investor, or on and on and on.

And all this is happening while they promise crazy things. We'll solve centralized infrastructure... With crypto! We'll solve science reproducibility crisis.... With crypto! We'll solve social media... With crypto! Now, it's "We'll solve..." With AI!

But crypto is just a decentralized ledger technology (usually). It's accounting with less trust required. But that's it. It's not even a database. The problem is crypto can't do meat-space. It can't force people to do anything. It's supposed to be all about being trustless, and yet you have to trust humans to do whatever the ledger is asking/suggesting them to do

Now look at AI, it's just a chatbot. It summarizes stuff pretty well, and if you steal a bunch of stuff from the internet and books, you can sometimes get it to spit it back out to you. But it cannot be trusted. Because that summarizing is not from understanding, but from probability, and sometimes, per probability, it'll come up with complete nonsense. So, again, the bottleneck is humans. [ In this case you have to trust humans to find and fix anything the LLM hallucinated. Edit 4/8/26: It's supposed to be all about automation, and yet there's always a human step that prevents the full automation, which means its no longer about automation, it's just about sometimes-marginal efficiency gains.]

Who's going to make those data centers for LLMs? Humans. Has /anything/ suggested that more data centers will get new AI technology to overcome the inherent problems of AI? No.

Who's going to do supposedly the stuff the ledger says to do? Humans. Has /anything/ suggested that new crypto technology will somehow force humans to actually do what they are told? No.

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