๐๏ธ Why the Attempted Trump Assassination Triggered a Crypto Rally
Because markets are ENTIRELY RATIONAL. Also: Tornado Cash; BitConnect conviction (!!!); and literally gambling with investor money.
The past weekendโs attempt on the life of former President and current candidate Donald Trump is bad in every possible way, from every possible angle โ except for what it can teach us about the depravity of our society.
One of those lessons can be seen in the Bitcoin chart, which has shot up by around 10% in the few days since the assassination attempt. Nobody should in any way celebrate this, though, unless you are yourself proudly depraved: The damage the incident has and will cause is in no way a fair trade for your bags getting a little heavier.
While even Bitcoin partisans shouldnโt consider this rally โgood,โ there is a revealing and simple logic to it. It was clear almost immediately after the failed attempt that it made Trump look good, in a very visceral way, thanks to what has been widely described as his โdefiantโ and immediate reaction to the attempt on his life.
This made it more likely that Trump will be re-elected, and in turn, that a more crypto-friendly regulatory regime will come into power. Hence, number go up. And frankly, it sickens me.
The Biden administration has pursued a strategy on crypto that is, in no uncertain terms, simply wrong in nearly every way that matters. The SEC in particular has been so rogue that its living example of imperial overreach can only have nudged the Supreme Court even further in its overturning of โChevron deferenceโ for regulatory agencies.
And now we are learning that Biden has been so incompetent and wrongheaded on the issue that itโs pushing people to support Donald Trump strictly on the grounds that heโs pro-crypto. This is a Rubicon that I cannot and never will cross, because I genuinely believe (as much as the Democrats have turned it into a toothless claim) that Trump is an antidemocratic force.
Trumpโs impacts in the here and now outweigh whatever long-term benefit democracy might see from better crypto policy.
Itโs also worth reminding folks that Trumpโs grasp of crypto and its implications is almost certainly shallow โ and therefore transitory. Remember, heโs like a cat with a pair of keys: if the next person he talks says just the right things, Trumpโs love of crypto could be gone like a spring rain.
The Tornado Cash Trial is About YOUR Rights
I was honored to be invited to write about the criminal trial of Roman Storm, one of the founders of the Tornado Cash crypto mixing protocol, for a new cypherpunk-aligned publication called The Rage. I wrote first about a pretrial hearing last Friday, which included the judgeโs decision to delay the proceedings until December.
Today, we published a followup piece digging into the Constitutional implications of the case, having to do with the roles of money and code as varieties of protected speech. However, as I also explore in todayโs piece, the specific behavior of Storm and his team make their conviction more likely than if this were purely an exercise in Constitutional theory.
The Rage is a shoestring operation run by a very dedicated advocate for pro-freedom technology. If youโd like to see more coverage like this, from myself or others, please consider supporting the Rage via Geyser.
BitConnect Promoter John Biggaton Convicted in Australia
About 18 months ago now, I finished some of my proudest work: two seasons of the audio documentary series Crypto Crooks. The second episode we made is titled โWhere is Madeline Biggaton,โ for the disappeared wife of John Biggaton. Biggaton was the lead Australian promoter of the crypto fraud BitConnect, earning perhaps millions in commissions for effectively conning people. His wife Madeline disappeared in a possible suicide after the scam collapsed, and victims began harassing the family.
Now, Biggaton has been convicted in Australia of providing unlicensed financial advice. Unfortunately, this seems like a slap on the wrist: he will essentially be on probation for a few years, and it isnโt reported that there was any disgorgement or financial penalty element at all. Thereโs also no sign yet that the trial uncovered anything about his wifeโs fate, though that could still emerge.
Literally Gambling Away the Investorsโ Money
Everything thatโs very funny is also very sad, including this incredible story of a casino founder who gambled away his investorsโ money by putting it into leveraged long positions on Bitcoin, which were then liquidated.
The excellent Sam Kessler over at CoinDesk actually interviewed the founder in question, Richard Kim, who seems like a very sad person. Kim essentially acknowledges he has a compulsive gambling/risk problem. But he also assures investors that heโs going to โฆ wait for it โฆ win it all back.
I've always been suspicious of those "Crypto Went Up/Down Because and Only Because X Happened" articles that CoinDesk still seems to have a lot of. In this case, I'll definitely agree with DZM that it's likely that "45 is alive" (to the voice of Short Circuit) was related somewhat to the rally. Especially as 45 was/is also going to be at a Bitcoin conference and he's had his recent pro-crypto remarks (which DZM rightly reminds us are about as believable as anything out of the mouth of a pathological lying, narcissistic psychopath--but of course I'm not talking about a pathological lying, narcissistic psychopath /per se/--I'm just saying neither should be believed).
But, to me, the only macro effects that seem truly influential to the price of BTC going up are interest rates going down (or likely going down soon) and tech stocks (particularly risky tech stocks) going up, though the latter is likely correlation not causation.
If anything, it seems as the former two conditions were in play for quite a while, and a rally should have already happened by now. This is likely why the gambler from Galaxy lost so much on his leveraged (likely long) bets. But the Crypto Goes Down Because stories of Mt Gox imminent repayments and Germany BTC sells just didn't seem compelling enough to me. (And if they were true, well, Germany transferred the last of its BTC to an exchange right before the rally, which then negates the 45 angle.)
I suspect that the reason the rally stalled was an entity with a LOT of BTC was in hot water and needed something less trackable and more functional than BTC and was selling. Take your pick between CZ, Justin Sun, and Tether. But we'll never know because forget Tornado, the real obfuscator of funds flow are sketchy centralized exchanges, which of course they have very clear access to. (I don't think Sun's offer to buy BTC from Germany was ever serious. Germany would never have said yes. If anything it smacks of Ellison saying everything is great, we'll buy your FTT.)
Regarding Bitconnect, I have said before I think Crypto Crooks was phenomenal. What's most criminal, though, was how little promotion / page prominence it got during the time on CoinDesk (as oppose to aforementioned Crypto Goes Up or Down Because articles).
Lastly, per my previous comment about Freud, I found the mention of Jung in the final paragraph of the Kessler article, well, very weird. Jung is just as full of it as Freud. The "anima" referenced in that paragraph was first introduced by Jung after I think he had some self-professed occult-like god transformation per https://www.hgi.org.uk/resources/delve-our-extensive-library/interviews/mysterious-jung-his-cult-lies-he-told-and-occult . The amount of EA similarity with Freud and Jung (the latter being a favorite of a Rockefeller, per previous link) is staggering. A new Gilded Age, I guess, means a new chance to peddle some philosophy to help the rich sleep at night on their big piles of money.